Programme details

Four European Union countries -Germany, Great Britain, France and Finland - and Norway take part in the Arctic Ice Cover Simulation Experiment, also referred to as AICSEX.
By studying the data pertaining to the last 100 years, AICSEX aims at measuring the evolution of the temperature and at predicting the effects of melting ice on the climate in the 21st century.

Temperature Measurement

One of the lessons learned from satellite photographs that have been available since the '70s is that over the last 20 years the ice has decreased 8%.
This measurement is also supported by measurements of ice thickness taken by nuclear submarines under the ice.
This is how it was possible to determine that over the last 30 years, the thickness of the ice in the autumn has been decreasing by 4cm per year on the average, representing 40% of the total volume of ice.

Temperature Evolution

The temperature record for the last hundred years shows actually that we had a strong increase in the temperature in the 1930's et 40's, followed by a cooler period and then warmer temperature again, let's say from 1970 up to now.
This temperature increase in the 1930's was actually caused by natural variability, while the increase in temperature of the last, let's say 20 years, has been caused by or partially caused by human influence.

Global Warming

This global warming is felt more in the Arctic than in the rest of the world. This is why every attention is paid to this region. At the end of the 21st century, the polar ice cover may completely disappear during the summer.
When floating ice melts, this does not cause an increase of the sea level. Simply because the ice is frozen from water and it melts again, so no water has been added.
However, if the Greenland ice sheet and Antarctica start to melt, then the sea level will increase.

Consequences

The melting of the polar ice cover could have a series of consequences in the long run:
- the ecosystem will change, but scientists do not yet know precisely how
- facilitate maritime transport
- impact on the ocean currents

Conclusion

By studying the effects of natural variability and human activity on the Arctic, the AICSEX project gives a greater understanding of this vast area of seas, considered to be an outpost of on-going climate changes.